Claude Sonnet 3.5 - The Best AI Model : A Trading Experiment

20 Jun 2024

I'm speechless. The new Anthropic model, Claude Sonnet 3.5 is the greatest model in reasoning capabilities.

Claude 3.5 Sonnet is a new AI model released by Anthropic.

This model is the first in the Claude 3.5 family and is considered a significant improvement over its predecessor, Claude 3 Opus. It excels in various areas, including graduate-level reasoning, undergraduate-level knowledge, and coding proficiency, making it ideal for complex tasks like customer support and workflow orchestration.

The model operates at twice the speed of Claude 3 Opus. It can be integrated with various platforms like Amazon Bedrock and Google Cloud's Vertex AI, making it a versatile tool for businesses.

Claude 3.5 Sonnet also shows remarkable improvement in vision tasks, surpassing its predecessor in standard vision benchmarks, and can accurately transcribe text from imperfect images.

The company has also introduced a new feature called Artifacts, which allows users to interact with Claude in a more dynamic and collaborative way, creating a workspace where they can see, edit, and build upon Claude's creations in real time. This marks the beginning of Claude's evolution from a conversational AI to a collaborative work environment.

Here’s my initial experiment:

Setup and Context

First, I uploaded a complex chat showing the prices of:

  • US Dollar
  • S&P 500 Index
  • Bank interest rate

I added this system prompt: "You are an expert developer and trader with godlike reasoning capabilities as well as profound technical knowledge. Do whatever user asks for and never stop with the expected output; always try to satify the user by providing more insights, analysis or even breakthroughs."

To enhance the output, I provided additional information:

"Consider the following events:

  1. Mild recession beginning in 2022, coinciding with rate hikes
  2. Recent rate cuts by: Bank of Canada Swiss National Bank
  3. Rumored upcoming rate cut by: Bank of England
  4. Cautious expectations regarding rate cuts by: Federal Reserve (US)"

Initial Tasks and Analysis

I first asked the model to write the index prices into a JSON file.

It extracted the information from the image and created the file accurately.

This initial step already showcased its impressive ability to handle complex tasks involving both vision and data extraction.

It's something that many models struggle with, yet Claude Sonnet 3.5 did it seamlessly, demonstrating its advanced capabilities.

Next, I asked for a detailed correlation analysis and trading strategies: "Impressive. Now, I want you to deep dive into the correlations and future predictions. Write a very detailed analysis. Think like the best trader, best hacker, best creative..."

The model goes beyond basic correlations and predictions. It provides context, acknowledges exceptions, and offers a nuanced understanding of complex relationships.

Also, it doesn’t just stop at identifying correlations; the model explains why those relationships exist and under what conditions they might change.

This is particularly useful for traders and analysts who need to understand not just the "what" but also the "why" behind market movements.

Instead of offering a single prediction, the model considers multiple scenarios and their potential impacts.

This is critical for financial analysis, where outcomes are rarely certain, and preparing for various possibilities can be the key to successful trading and investment strategies.

Let's first see how it analyzed the correlations:

“Correlation Analysis:

a) Federal Funds Rate and U.S. Dollar Index: There's a generally positive correlation between these two variables. When interest rates rise, the dollar tends to strengthen. This is evident in the period from 2022 to early 2024, where both the Federal Funds Rate and the Dollar Index increased significantly. However, this correlation isn't perfect, as seen in the 2015-2018 period where the dollar weakened despite rising rates.

b) Federal Funds Rate and S&P 500: The relationship here is more complex. Historically, moderate rate hikes often coincided with bull markets (e.g., 2016-2018). However, rapid rate increases, like those seen in 2022, can lead to market corrections. Interestingly, the S&P 500 has shown remarkable resilience, reaching new highs despite high interest rates in 2023-2024.

c) U.S. Dollar Index and S&P 500: These two often move inversely, as a stronger dollar can hurt multinational companies' overseas earnings. However, in recent years (2020-2024), we've seen periods where both have risen simultaneously, suggesting other factors (like global economic recovery and tech sector growth) are influencing the S&P 500.”

The model correctly identifies a general positive correlation between interest rates and the dollar index. This is a well-known relationship because higher interest rates typically attract foreign investment, boosting the dollar.

It mentions periods where this correlation didn’t hold, such as 2015-2018. This kind of insight is invaluable because it warns users that correlations are not absolute and can be influenced by other factors.

Let's continue with the predictions of the model:

"Future Predictions:

a) Interest Rates: Given the recent cautious stance of the Federal Reserve, I predict a gradual easing of rates starting in late 2024 or early 2025.

The Fed will likely want to see sustained evidence of inflation cooling before making significant cuts.

Expect 2-3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2024, bringing the Federal Funds Rate to around 4.75-5% by year-end.

b) U.S. Dollar Index: As other central banks (Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank) have already started cutting rates, the dollar may maintain its strength in the short term.

However, as the Fed eventually joins the rate-cutting cycle, we could see the Dollar Index retreat to the 98-100 range by end of 2024.

c) S&P 500: The index has shown remarkable resilience.

Given the potential for rate cuts and continued AI-driven tech growth, I predict the S&P 500 could reach 5300-5500 by end of 2024.

However, this is contingent on a "soft landing" scenario where inflation is controlled without triggering a severe recession.”

The model explains that moderate rate hikes can coincide with bull markets, while rapid increases can lead to corrections.

This reflects a sophisticated understanding of how interest rates can impact equity markets differently depending on the rate of change and the broader economic context.

Noting the resilience of the S&P 500 despite high rates in 2023-2024 is an important observation, indicating that other factors, such as technological advancements, might be at play.

While these typically move inversely, the model highlights periods when both rose simultaneously, suggesting other influences like global recovery and tech sector growth.

This is a great example of the model's ability to provide context-specific insights.

I can't wait to feed Anthropic Sonnet 3.5 over the upcoming months, but I can clearly say that you can't get this kind of technical reasoning and valid predictions from GPT-4 or other models. I also really liked the language and tone of the model.

But you know what, it hasn't even started yet.

In the same output, it also provided potential black swan events and algorithmic trade opportunities (I had to use a larger token size because it got cut in half).

But let's check the trading strategy suggestions;

"Trading Strategies:

a) Yield Curve Trading: With potential rate cuts on the horizon, consider a "steepener" trade, betting on the yield curve steepening as short-term rates fall faster than long-term rates.

b) Sector Rotation: As rates potentially decrease, rotate into sectors that benefit from lower rates, such as Real Estate and Utilities. However, maintain exposure to tech stocks that have shown resilience in various rate environments.

c) Dollar-Sensitive Plays: If the dollar weakens as predicted, look into multinational companies with significant overseas revenue, as well as emerging market ETFs that could benefit from a weaker dollar.

d) Options Strategies: Consider long-dated call options on the S&P 500 to benefit from potential upside while limiting downside risk. Alternatively, use a collar strategy to protect gains while still participating in potential upside.

Potential Black Swan Events:

a) Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East could lead to safe-haven flows, strengthening the dollar and potentially causing market volatility.

b) Tech Bubble Burst: The concentration of S&P 500 gains in a few large tech stocks poses a risk. Any significant regulatory action or earnings disappointment could trigger a broader market selloff.

c) Inflation Resurgence: If inflation proves stickier than expected, the Fed might be forced to maintain high rates for longer, potentially triggering a more severe recession.

Algorithmic Trading Opportunities:

a) High-Frequency Trading: Develop algorithms to capitalize on short-term discrepancies between interest rate expectations and currency movements.

b) Machine Learning Models: Train models on historical data to predict S&P 500 movements...”

Predicting a gradual easing of rates aligns well with current economic conditions and the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve.

This kind of prediction is useful for planning long-term investment strategies.

The detailed forecast of 2-3 rate cuts bringing rates to 4.75-5% by year-end 2024 is precise and actionable, helping investors set expectations and plan accordingly.

The model's prediction of short-term dollar strength followed by a retreat as the Fed cuts rates is logical and reflects an understanding of global monetary policy dynamics.

Providing a specific range (98-100) adds clarity and helps in setting more precise trading strategies.

The prediction of the S&P 500 reaching 5300-5500 is optimistic yet grounded in current trends like AI-driven tech growth. It’s contingent on a “soft landing” scenario, which is a realistic assessment.

Mentioning the conditions (controlled inflation and avoiding a severe recession) shows that the model’s predictions are not just hopeful but based on realistic scenarios.

Yield Curve Trading: Sophisticated Strategy: Suggesting a steeper trade reflects an advanced understanding of bond markets. This strategy is timely given the potential rate cuts.

Sector Rotation: Actionable Advice: Rotating into sectors that benefit from lower rates while maintaining tech exposure is a balanced approach, showing the model’s ability to think strategically about portfolio management.

Dollar-Sensitive Plays: Global Perspective: This strategy leverages the model’s earlier analysis of the dollar index and provides actionable insights for global exposure.

Options Strategies: Risk Management: The inclusion of options strategies like long-dated call options and collar strategies demonstrates a sophisticated approach to risk management and leveraging opportunities.

Black Swan Events: Geopolitical Tensions, Tech Bubble Burst, Inflation Resurgence: Identifying these potential black swan events shows the model’s depth of risk analysis, considering various factors that could disrupt markets. This helps traders and investors prepare for unexpected scenarios.

It even touched upon potential Nvidia crashes or AI regulatory effects on the market.

This is just a quick overview of the model, but it's super impressive!

Smarter, faster, cheaper…

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